AK and Terrorism in Europe 

Europe: 19th of June 2016 

Weapon cache found in German Mosque comprising grenade launchers and Kalashnikov assault rifles, nature and extent of cache indicates massive deadly attacks on civil targes just a matter of course

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Europe: 19th of June 2016 

Armed robbery with Kalashnikov in Amsterdam on family  

In Amsterdam  a family was brutally robbed by three heavily armed criminals probably of North Africa descent. The violence used by these three criminals proves the unscrupulous way of working, possibly inspired radical religious motives to rob only those who are non-believers. Although the robbery appears to be a pure criminal act it's a fact that differences between terrorism and criminals activities begin to blur due to the fact that terrorist activities are more and more difficult to finance due to a number of mandatory operational controls within the financial industry. In the Netherlands and many other European countries private gun ownership for reasons of home defense are stricly forbidden, any citizen who would use privately owned guns granted by license  On the ohter hand there are no garantees police is able to offer    
17th September 2016 (C) SAFOPS CONSULTANCY   

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A terrifying news item was recentely published about stock piles of Kalashnikov assault rifles and rocket propelled grenades that were found at a mosque in Nordrhein-Westfalen in Germany. The number of weapons discovered was shocking and would have been large enough to arm a complete Islamic State platoon, around 30 up to 50 jihadists could have been heavily armed. The quantity and quality of such weapon caches point out that much bigger and even many more dramatic attacks by Islamic State are to be expected on a scale far from any thinkable estimation. Despite the general idea that Islamic State would have been decimated in Syria there's certainly no change in the terrorist threat for European countries, on the contrary if Islamic State would be (partially) defeated the organization is getting more and more fragmented in and around the Middle East. New fragments could easily lead to new sub groups. The weapon cache that was seized comprised a large number of Kalashnikov assault rifles and RPG-7 anti tank weapons. New attacks won't have to be prepared by Islamic State due to the simple fact that ISIS jihadists are well trained and experienced in conflict regions in using these weapons. They only have to wait for orders or for the day attacks have been planned to be carried out. The question even is whether certain jihadists operate autonomously, without any communcation with Islamic State. 
17th September 2016 (C) SAFOPS CONSULTANCY   

Europe: 19th of June 2016 

Weapon cache found in German Mosque comprising grenade launchers and Kalashnikov assault rifles, nature and extent of cache indicates massive deadly attacks on civil targes just a matter of course

A terrifying news item was recentely published about stock piles of Kalashnikov assault rifles and rocket propelled grenades that were found at a mosque in Nordrhein-Westfalen in Germany. The number of weapons discovered was shocking and would have been large enough to arm a complete Islamic State platoon, around 30 up to 50 jihadists could have been heavily armed. The quantity and quality of such weapon caches point out that much bigger and even many more dramatic attacks by Islamic State are to be expected on a scale far from any thinkable estimation. Despite the general idea that Islamic State would have been decimated in Syria there's certainly no change in the terrorist threat for European countries, on the contrary if Islamic State would be (partially) defeated the organization is getting more and more fragmented in and around the Middle East. New fragments could easily lead to new sub groups. The weapon cache that was seized comprised a large number of Kalashnikov assault rifles and RPG-7 anti tank weapons. New attacks won't have to be prepared by Islamic State due to the simple fact that ISIS jihadists are well trained and experienced in conflict regions in using these weapons. They only have to wait for orders or for the day attacks have been planned to be carried out. The question even is whether certain jihadists operate autonomously, without any communcation with Islamic State. 
17th September 2016 (C) SAFOPS CONSULTANCY   

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Europe: 8th of June 2016 

Islamic State terrorists precense camouflaged by holding a regufee status in Dutch refugee camp, terrorist risks of refugee crisis still no part of an open public debate, terrorist risks appear to be no more than logical side effects to be risk accepted as part of duty to house refugees in Europe 

It is nothing more than logical risk thinking that among refugees Islamic State jihadist are hiding themselves to get easily legal access into Europe. It already was proven that it was no difficulty to obtain a false Syrian pasport. Despite all this, terrorist risks as side effect of the refugee influx would be negligible, according to several experts. Recent media reports now officially confirm that Islamic State jihadists were among refugees. This all was reported during the beginning of European refugee crisis. One year after the refugee crisis errupted fact is that Islamic State Jihadists are now discovered being refugee sleeper cells, about 20 Islamic State jihadists seem to have been related with the sleeper cell, now only waiting to conduct their terrorist activities.  According to several public opinion makers terrorist risks are a natural side effect to be accepted by as part of the human crisis. The questions arise whether Western sovereignity may be jeopardized because of one dimensional views on humanity. 
17th September 2016 (C) SAFOPS CONSULTANCY   

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Europe: 2nd of June 2016 

New arrests of Islamic State jihadists in Germany planned to execute attacks only due to inside information from the terrorist network itself 

In Germany a terrorist attack has been prevented from happening after three Islamic State jihadists have been arrested. The information had to came from the ISIS network itself which proves the vulnerability of the information position of intelligence agencies in Europe. The fact that the information came from a direct source within the ISIS network also proves there are no guarantees the information position of intelligence services is adequate enough to avoid new terrorist attacks from happening. After the arrests have been carried out new information made clear that attacks were planned to be executed based on the same recipy that is, the attacks would have been conducted with a combination of explovises charges and small arms. The pattern is detonating the explosive charges after which gun men attack fleeing people in shock during the first moments of chaos and panic which in itself creates extra chaos and panic.
17th September 2016 (C) SAFOPS CONSULTANCY       

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Europe: 27th of May 2016 

Is Kosovo becoming Islamic States research and development centre for training, illegal trade and recruitment in a region where 750,000 AK47 type assault rifles have dissappeared, why Western media don't report on real military threats for Europe?

When the Kosovo region was set on indepence from Serbia the Clinton Administration decided to intervene in 1999, leading to high tech massive bombardments on Serbia using a overwhelming military force. Serbia was forced to end its military intervention to prevent Kosovo from seperating itself from Serbia. Not more than 15 years after these Western military operations the situation in Kosovo is very troublesome. According to several media channels the region is heavily funded to support the Wahhabi and Salafi movements by several Gulf states. When combining these two fundemental and radical movements with the fact that over 750,000 Kalashnikov assault rifle have disappeared the only questions remains why these growing military threat for Europe don't get more media attention. The current situation seems to be something like unwritten media guide line for the mainstream media keeping public uninformed about the real risks that are growing on a daily basis in Europe.  
17th September 2016 (C) SAFOPS CONSULTANCY   

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Europe: 26st of May 2016 

About 29 Kalashnikov assault rifles, 10,000 cartridges and rocket propelled grenades discovered in a warehouse in Tunisia, arms ready to be smuggled into Europe

Only a small part of many weapon caches are expected to be seized that means a major part remains undiscovered. This is a very worrisome situation in a region where law and order have been completely vanished after Western military interventions. Despite the idea that the Mediterranean sea would be a natural border to keep small arms out of Europe this idea is nothing more than wishfull thinking. It already became clear that weapons of war were found on board of refugee ships, stories that remain unpublished. More important is that illegal small arms trade form Nothern Africa towards Europe and conflict regions around Europe can come in by regular trade. This is a significant threat for public safety in Europe. Also illegal trade routes from Nothern Africa to Europe which are centuries old carry these weapon of war into Europe. The infrastructure of these routes are related with drugs crime. Since financial economic crime becomes more and more difficult terrorist organizations are now funding their activities with drug crime. A major number of weapons available in Nothern African were part of Western interventions in order to overthown governments. Several of these government now have to be aware these weapons boomerang into Europe. 
17th September 2016 (C) SAFOPS CONSULTANCY         

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Europe: 22nd of May 2016 

Recent message of Islamic State, announcement of new attacks during the Ramadan as part of the Jihad emphasizing attack only those who don't believe in Islam  

Although not officially confirmed it appears that Islamic State recently announced it will execute terrorist attacks on Western targets during the ramadan. A rather striking part of the ISIS message is that the attacks will be focused on targets of non believers stressing the difference between those who believe in the Islam and those who don't. With this message to attack non believers it is realistic to expect that Islamic State jihadists concentrate their attacks on religious symbols of the Christian faith for example churches and Christian schools across Europe. Selecting these soft targets would have a dramatic impact on the perception of public security. Furthermore protection of churches is no issue momentarily in Europe. Taking the number of weapons caches recently discovered into account there is indicates that small arms like the Kalashnikov will play a major role in new attacks. 
21st May 2016 (C) SAFOPS CONSULTANCY   

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Europe: 21st of May 2016 

Kosovo a dangerous combination of growing radical Islam with a high illegal Kalashnikov assault rifle concentration, Europe could face an Islamic State surprise attack too big to be fully preprared for 

In the Southern part of Europe, the Balkan region Kosovo is turning itself more and more into a hotbed area for Islamic State jihadists. When the Clinton Administration decided to bomb the Serbian armed forces in 1999 there already were critics who stated that this Western approach of the conflict would cause counterproductive results regarding public safety. At that time radical Islamic groups, in fact fundamental derivates of the Mujaihideen, were already active there. Even then beheadings already took place in Kosovo of captured Serbian soldiers. The situation in Kosovo now is that Salafism and Wahabbism are rapidly growing creating a situation where at least an anti Western sentiment is emerging. Most striking is that in the Kosovo and Albania regions there is a high concentration of Kalashnikov Assault rifles. One of the main supporters of the Clintons policy is George Soros who openly supports the re-election of the Clinton dynasty, George Soros funds and owns the Open Society Foundation. 
17th September 2016 (C) SAFOPS CONSULTANCY   

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(t=0) How the Bill Clinton Administration decided to bomb Serbia in order to help Kosovo in 1998

(t=1) How the current the situation in Kosovo is after intervention of Bill Clinton Administration

     

Russia / Rep. of Ingushetia: 21st of May 2016

Ongoing discoveries of Islamic State weapons caches question is, which parts remains under the radar of intelligence agencies waiting to be deployed?  

Russian media has revealed several news items about the discovery of small arms storages. According to the Russian intelligence agencies the military weapons - among which several modified Kalashnikov assault rifles and inherent ammuntion - that had been secured were all related with Islamic State. The weapons seemingly belonged to network with criminal intentions. Organized criminal activities are no longer a mafia domain, Criminal activities is now one of the financial sources of terrorism since it became more difficult to fund terrorism without being discovered by mandatory controls implemented within the financial sector. The footage shows that the Kalashnikov assault rifles missed the buttstocks. Also striking was the number silencers that were found at the location. The combination of weapons and explosives is remarkable. The number of magazines and ammunitions would make it possible to conduct terrorist attacks comparable with military infiltration operations. 
21st May 2016 (C) SAFOPS CONSULTANCY  

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Russia: 19th of April 2016

Russia's legitimate concern about expansion risks of Islamic State, how the ISIS expansion plans in Central Asia could simply affect Western interests as well 

No single scenario where Islamic State would emerge as military power in Central Asia would be in favor of any interest of the Western political agenda, as some strategists may think. Any believe of getting Russia and China into political internal trouble by supporting Islamic State in an attempt to destabilize certain regions within both countries with a view of destabalizing both countries would end in global turmoil. The presence of Islamic State in Central Asia would be an significant step in the evolvement op power of ISIS. Islamic State already strengthens its military position in Afghanistan. The consolidation process of Islamic State between all kinds of regions vulnarable for IS infiltration and local groups willing to join leads to a more difficult circumstances. Only for that reason it would have been more than logical that military cooperation between the former Cold War opponents is settled.
21st May 2016 (C) SAFOPS CONSULTANCY    

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India: 12th of May 2016

Practice what you preach for kids Kalashnikovs and bombs as basic principles how to conduct terror 

Islamic State appears to have developed what might be called a terror app for smartphones. This app was specifically developed for childeren according to the news source. The app is to pratice childeren about the Jihad. One of the remarkable features of the app was that the Kalashnikov assault rifle takes in a prominent place in the education app. The Kalashnikov assault rifle is part of the standard 'pratice what you preach' approach of ISIS. The fact that the app is mentioning the Kalashnikov so prominent shows the importance of the weapon for the Islamic fight the Jihad of ISIS. World wide about 150 million Kalashnikov assault rifles are available,of which many are meant for regular armies but the other part is circulating from one war scene to another war scene. 
21st May 2016 (C) SAFOPS CONSULTANCY  

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Spain: 1st of May 2016

The financial support to buy weapons for the Jihad as part of charity fundraising

Islamists who believe to feel the need to support the Jihad without being directly involved seem to have found the answer in a hadith stating that offering money to those who waging the jihad are actually waging the jihad themselves. In short offering mony to buy weapon for the Jihad pays off compunction. So called experts in peace studies recentely mentioned a number of risk reducing measures to improve public security such as licensing AK47 magazines, such proposals where stated by the Vlaamse Vredesinstituut, the Flemish Peace Institute. A conservative average estimate of AK magazines per AK assault rifle is about 8 magazines x 150 million AK47 assault rifle makes 1,2 billion magazines available world wide. Perhaps there is no better proof, referring to this kind of proposals, how far such experts are standing from any risk reality. AK47 magazines are everywhere. There is a strong need for phlegmatic advises when it comes to public security rather then representing hidden agendas to pave the way for getting contraproductive gun control measures in place as the Finnish government recentely stated. Check here.
21st May 2016 (C) SAFOPS CONSULTANCY  

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Spain: 30rd of April 2016

Preventing new terrorist attack from being to happen daily practice around the globe, cooperation on intelligence and military operation will be a fundamental requirement. 

Several religious buildings have proven to be an ideal cover up of secret small arms storages. Because of the fact that such structures tend to have a social respect the actual risks of undiscovered weapon storages could grow. Because of the protective status it's much more difficult to get a complete picture of these risks. Any investigation to determine weapon storages pointing into the direction of structures selected on religion would be difficult. Nonetheless tollerance needs to be reassessed when it comes to public security risks because of  weapon hiding places versus social respect for faith. The combination of explosives and small arms proves that new terrorist attacks are likely to be a combination gun violence and shrapnel casualties.
21st May 2016 (C) SAFOPS CONSULTANCY      

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Bulgaria: 18th of April 2016

Kalashnikovs for Bulgarian border protection, volunteers appear to be necessary to protect Bulgaria from infiltration of Islamic State fighters at the Turkish-Bulgarian border

Since Bulgaria is geographically situated as a neighbouring country of Turkey and also an EU-member the risks of Islamic State infiltrants at the Bulgarian-Turkisch border are recognized. The risks may not be underestimated since the Turkish-Syrian border is far from being protective enough against the infiltration of (former) Islamic State jihadists. The protection of the Bulgarian border is not something to be exclusively outsourced to government, the risk measures announced by the Bulgarian Minister President prove the evolvement of awareness. Other sources claim that the volunteers are armed by the Bulgarian government with Kalashnikov assault rifles since confrontation at in the woods at the Bulgarian-Turkisch border are possible. 
21st May 2016 (C) SAFOPS CONSULTANCY  

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Spain: 9th of April 2016

Various automatic weapons found in combination with Islamic State flag in Spanish enclave Morocco

The number of weapons caches discovered are more often related with symbols of Islamic State (ISIS) like flags or propaganda material. Weapons caches do not need to be part of a global Islamic State network by definition. The cache that was recentely discovered appears to be the work of local supporters of Islamic State sharing believes and ideologies of ISIS. This however should not be indicated as the work of amateurs. Local supporters anywhere on the globe unable to get or to have contact with one of the official Islamic State jihadists could have been filled with the sense to prove to be part of the ISIS network, and so, willing to act. Again a clear signal that intelligence agencies need to be taken much more serious on the political agenda when it comes to budget allocation. The news that was offered by Reuters about a weapons cache that was found in the Spanish enclave in Morocco is just one of many expected weapons caches. The build-up of illegal arsenals for terrorist intensions needs to be seen as a consolidated problem for public security in Western societies. The question arises whether or not a plan is behind all these risk events. 
21st May 2016 (C) SAFOPS CONSULTANCY   

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Spain: 6th of April 2016

Social media websites facilitate illegal small arms dealing, different kinds of Kalashnikov assault rifles and heat seaking missles for sale

Small arms will play a more and more important role for terrorist organizations. This is not only because of an easy preparation of terrorist attacks compared with bomb attacks it's also because the world wide obtainability of small arms has been promoted for the last 15 years. In their mission to overthrow several governments in the Middle East masses of small arms are provided to rebel groups of which the real intentions are often unclear. There are even risks that rebel groups are not more than oridinary tradesmen who have settled themselves in dealing networks no matter who to deliver weapons to. In the end these government supplies are actually much bigger risks for Western societies, in particular countries in Western Europe, than the risks of individual and incidental misuse of legal small arms, as is so often misleadingly stated as gun control arguments. Such discussions simply distracts the risk attention which should be addressed to the boomerang effects related with small arms deliveries originally to get rid of Middle East dicators but with the side effects of a much further intensified diffusion of small arms in a number of Middle East regions. The destabilized regions remain feeding a power vacuum paving the way for the esthablishment Islamic State after which the consolidation of Islamic State regions could start. 
21st May 2016 (C) SAFOPS CONSULTANCY    

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Europe / Netherlands: 22nd of March 2016

Simultaneous and multiple terrorist attacks in Europe very likely to happen, possible new Islamic State strategy for the years to come in Europe, illegal Kalashnikov proliferation boosts chances on copycat terrorist attacks

As from 2013 there is a clear growing trend in terrorist attacks on Western targets conducted with Kalashnikov gun fire. To a certain extent the reason this type of attacks takes place is related with undisclosed successes of intelligence agencies in avoiding bomb attacks. Bomb attacks require a much more sophisticated preparation. Since terrorist attacks with Kalashnikov assault rifles can be rather easily prepared often without being observed by intelligence agencies the chances on simultaneous attacks in several European capticals are growing. Simultaneous attacks will have a much deeper impact on Western societies. The influx of illegal Kalashnikov assault rifles from conflict regions like the Ukraine, parts of Turkey, Lebanon, Syria and Libia (just to mention a few) make that such type of attacks is also stimulated by the further promoted easy obtainability of illegal Kalashnikov assault rifles. The easy obtainability of illegal Kalashnikovs is in fact an accelerant as it lowers the hurdle for potential terrorists in committing terrorist attacks. Whether these terrorists have a connection with Islamic State or not doesn't matter the hurdle to commit terrorist attacks is lowered and public security affected. The process of illegal Kalashnikov proliferation itself could even have an ideological consolidating effect on fundamentalistic radicals. The reason for this is that the easy obtainability of these military equipement for terrorists has a boosting psychological effect on individuals and seperate groups because the possession of these means of violence create a feeling of having more military power and with that there will be more courage to start the ideological fundamentalistic fight. Underestimation of this process  by Western politicians is a much bigger risk than the actual terrorist acts as this would mean that the process itself isn't hindered and provokes even many more terrorist attacks. As strange as it may be, terrorist experts are mainly focussing their attention on the soft side to define the assumed root cause of terrorism, they seldomly included the aforementioned process as starting point. 
22nd March 2016 (C) SAFOPS CONSULTANCY   

Brussels: 22nd of March 2016  

Kalashnikov assault rifle found in Brussels at the location of the terrorist attacks, indication terrorist plans deviated from actual terrorist attacks, causing many more casualties with Kalashnikov gun fire was likely to be planned  

The discovery of a Kalashnikov assault rifle found at the location where the terrorist attacks were executed in Brussels is a clear indication that the terrorist attacks orginally planned have been worked out otherwise. It seems that, just like how it was planned and executed in Paris on the 13th of November 2015, terrorists obviously had plans to use a deadly combination of gun violence and explosives. When reasoning from the terrorist perspective the deadly explosive charges also causes panic and disorientation among the public directly involved in the terrorist scene. During the second stage of the attacks other terrorists could have been involved to assault fleeing (wounded) civilians. There might be even more terrorists involved that are now still unknown and simply escaped from the scene.
22nd March 2016 (C) SAFOPS CONSULTANCY   

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Brussels: 21st of March 2016 

More terrorist attacks planned in Belgium, terrorist network supported by likeminded groups in certain capital districts together with democratic values form safe havens for terrorists, Western politicians should be aware of consequences still to come  

After Salah Abdeslam was arrested media reported that additional terrorist attacks were very likely to happen. According to these reports this was what the suspect told but not officially confirmed. The underestimation of Islamic State appears to be the main problem. The current Dutch administration for example decided to downsize its intelligence agency AIVD in 2013. The decision was taken directly after the liberal and social party coalition started. When the first terrorist attacks were executed in Europe the decision was revised though many talented employees had already left the intelligence service. Another striking decision by the same political coalition was to downsize the Dutch Armed Forces but again facts turned out to evolve differently looking at the international political situation.  
22nd March 2016 (C) SAFOPS CONSULTANCY  

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Europe / Brussels: 20th of March 2016 

More Paris style terrorist attacks were planned, Islamic State likely to be fragmented in sub units throughout the whole of Western Europe without communication 

With the view to arrest terrorist suspect Salah Abdeslam the Belgian police was confronted with enemy gun fire directly executed by another unexpected Islamic terrorist using a Kalashnikov assault rifle on the Belgian police and service men. Four police men were injured. Salah Abdeslam seems to have enjoyed protection from family, friends and a network likeminded people in the Molenbeek district of Brussels. For at least four months he was able to hide in this district where, as media channels reported, new terrorist attacks seem to have been prepared. Societies are terribly inadequately informed about the nature of the terrorist threats and how soon these threats are emerging. There are absolutely no guarantees these terrorist networks remain only active in one or two districts. Several cities in Europe are faced with the same problem that is a flourishing fundamentalistic fanatism in combination with the availability of Kalashnikov assault rifles. When risks are not neutralized the process could develop itself to even military style conflicts within certain districts of several capitals in Europe. The Kalashnikov will be the lubricant of these processes.
22nd March 2016 (C) SAFOPS CONSULTANCY  

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Poland: 16th of March 2016

Three Arabs with Dutch pasports tried to buy Kalashnikov assault rifles in Poland, without success 

This message is another clear indication that terrorist gun attacks are to be expected to happen in Europe. Three Arab looking persons with Dutch pasports have tried to obtain weapons from a legal gun dealer. Aware of the situation the gun dealer immediately informed the Polish police after he was asked to deliver the weapons illegally and removing the gun numbers and registration numbers first. The dealer was also offered twice the price he was asking for the goods. One of the reasons the weapons were tried to be bought at legal dealers is to get the legal industry badly indirectly involved in terrorist actions so that Western politicians are mindsetted to further infringe legal gun ownership, this by making a much too simple association between terrorist intentions and legal ownership. Poland gun legislation was modernized to allow citizen to own small arms for hunting and target shooting purposes. 
22nd March 2016 (C) SAFOPS CONSULTANCY  

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Syria / Lebanon: 3rd of March 2016

Syrian war to be further fueled with possible arms deliveries to neighboring regions to Sunni and Wahabist militants in Lebanon, major impact on regional refugee camps   

According to the well respected defense information institute Jane's arms smuggling takes place in order to arm Sunni militants (and with that probably Wahabist militants as well). It would be a further revelation how parties are involved and mixed up in the Syrian war. When the intentions are to distabilize Lebanon another refugee problem can be expected. Again a very dangerous combination of illegal influx of unknown people and small arms is stimulated that way making Europe more and more vulnarable for terrrorism / jihadism. In the end this kind of arms smuggling not only jeopardizes the situation in Lebanon, if the information is correct then it can be seen as a direct support of terrorism directed against Europo as well. The forces behind these weapon deliveries are stimulating the chances on an uncontrollable growing problem of assymetrical warfare on European soil more and more day by day.
22nd March 2016 (C) SAFOPS CONSULTANCY  

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France: 29th of February 2016

Battle-hardened police and service men now better protected against incoming Kalashnikov gun fire with new ballistic shield, a new reality on the European streets

One of the dramatic experiences of the French police during the Paris terrorist attacks on the 13th of November 2015 was that bullet prove shields were not protective enough to withstand Kalashnikov gun fire. The bullets that were fired by the terrorists pierced the ballistic shields of the French police. The standard 7.62 x 39mm M43 cartridge fired by a Kalashnikov has sufficient penetration power to burst through the ballistic shield that were used at the time of the attacks. Now that the Kalashnikov is more and more commonly used against civilians police forces have to protect themselves specially when buildings are entered and hostile fire is directed against the police squads. The question now remains whether the ballistic shield are protective enough against special armor-piercing Kalashnikov rounds 
22nd March 2016 (C) SAFOPS CONSULTANCY  

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United Kingdom: 29th of February 2016  

No less than 22 illegal assault rifles and inherent ammunition was planned to be smuggled from France to the United Kingdom 

Officially reported as weapons meant for gangsters a striking arms cache was discovered by the British intelligence services. The story itself underlines the masses of illegally traded assault rifles. It also underlines the disbalance between those who are arming themselves illegally and those who have to spend their time to protect their legal gun possesion. The fire power that could have been created with 22 illegal assault rifles and the 1000 rounds is immense and comparable with an average army unit. Despite these gun smuggling events it is reasonable to expect that only a small part of the entire gun smuggling is really intervened and intercepted. This means that the build-up of illegally armed fundametalistic groups is rapidbly growing whereas the rights of civil self protection are in fact further declined referring to the plans and ideas of the European Commission led by Cecilia Malmström. The disbalance between civil self-protection and armed fundamentalists is growing every day as a documentary about the situation in the UK has already shown in 2007. The documentary explains the rate of  gun violence and illegal arms trafficking in the UK after several types of license based small arms were further banned. In the documentary a police man mentions the problems the UK police force is currently faced with, which is a growing rate of firepower caused by illegal small arms. This increasing disbalance process goes on for many years but for the last few years it is expentionally going in a further wrong direction, not in the least because of some local decisions regarding gun legislation are contraproductive and even risks themselves for Western societies. If the number of illegal small arms continues growing at this pace it is reasonable to expect that it will be very difficult if not impossible for governments to guarantee public safety let alone to hold the monopoly for that as many European governments have.
22nd March 2016 (C) SAFOPS CONSULTANCY   

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Europe: 20th of February 2016  

At least 5,000 jihadists are expected to return to Europe, disproportionate need for public security capacity in European countries  

When the estimations would be right then the numbers of returning jihadists to Europe would claim a major part of the public security and intelligence capacity in Europe alone. As most of them will return as ordinary civilians it will be extremely difficult to get a transparant picture of who is returning and when. More important, it isn't even that simple to legally prove that former jihadist really have committed crimes. To safeguard public security would require measures currently unthinkable of in modern societies. Fact is that combat experiences have made these returning jihadists military specialists to be reckoned with. The skills like developing explosive charges and deployment of small arms among which Kalashnikovs are well developed and battle proven. From that point of view alone Syria has become a training field. An urge for retaliation amongst returning jihadists is likely. Many of these returning jihadists are expected to have unresolved psychological traumas with which they can do nothing such as asking for help as it would mean they turn themselves in. The combination of mental disorder caused by traumatic battlefield experiences, intensive (Kalashnikov) weapon training and staying out of sight of intelligence agencies could even worsen the situation in Europe speaking in terms of public security risks for the years to come.
22nd March 2016 (C) SAFOPS CONSULTANCY   

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Europe / Italy: 17th of February 2016  

Italian Coast Guard threatened with Kalashnikov assault rifles by Lybian migrants smugglers, security officials warn Islamic State fighters are among refugees  

An alarming report was to be read about how the Italian coast guard was threatened by people smugglers armed with Kalashnikov assault rifles. Apart from the fact that these smugglers are able and willing to do so it stresses the fact that small arms like Kalashnikov assault rifles can be found on the refugee boats. Their reports support the vision and expectations that the most dangerous combination which is the influx  illegal small arms and completely unknown people is happening right now. Despite the so called refugee deal between Turkey and the European Union there are absolutely no guarantees that this deal is respected. Now that background checks cannot be executed it is clear that with the aforementioned dangerous combination public security is further at stake in Europe. These risks will take its toll on current security capacity where it should be realized that allocation decisions are to be made.
March 2016 (C) SAFOPS CONSULTANCY  

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Europe: 14th of February 2016  

Illegal small arms trade at the borders of the European Union, indication to be taken very seriously, question arises, is there an overall plan to destabilize countries in the European Union?  

A remarkable story was reported at the Greek Turkish boarder where the Greek police tracked and traced an remarkable illegal trade in small arms. Judging from the media reports the small arms were to be smuggled into Europe. In addition masses of ammunition had to be imported as well. Drugs smuggling learns that only a tiny part of the total drugs trade is intercepted, there no doubt this also counts for the illegal trade in small arms. The European Union looks like to aim its measures to restrict private licensed gun ownership led by Cecilia Malmström instead of focussing on real risks of the illegal build-up illegal weapon stocks. The Eurepean Commission measures however are very short-sighted understanding that the problems caused by the illegal gun ownership causes terrorism already and will be very likely to emerge much further on a much bigger scale. Terrorist attacks are planned, prepared and executed with means beyond visible range of intelligence agencies.
March 2016 (C) SAFOPS CONSULTANCY 

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Europe: 13th of February 2016  

French Prime Minister warned, new terrorist attacks are certain, terrorist attacks may increase eagerness amongst likeminded people in Europe to copy cat attacks  

The French prime minister warned that more terrorist attacks will take place in Europe. Despite the military efforts in Syria it's clear that the precense of Islamic State in Europe is a fact. The jihadist of Islamic State are expected to be completely infiltrated in European societies and therefore very difficult to track and trace. The large numbers of Kalashnikov assault rifle in general is very difficult to discover and will make the European societies more and more vulnurable for new attacks. Even more sophisticated since new attacks are likely to have an example to inspire other likeminded fundamentalistic people. To obtain Kalashnikov assault rifles is certainly not difficult. It's even very plausible that in certain districts, in particular those with a high density of religious fundamentalism, weapon caches are already hoared up ready to be used any time any place. There is no information offered to the European public what the actual figures are apart from a sporadic media messages that Kalashnikovs were found for example in a number of Mosques in France.
March 2016 (C) SAFOPS CONSULTANCY 

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Germany: 6th of February 2016 

Refugee caught as Islamic State jihadist, suspect seemingly planned to conduct terrorist attacks with Kalashnikov assault rifles in Europe 

In Germany an Islamic State suspect has been arrested by law enforcement units. The person in dispute had entered Europe as a refugee but had seemed to have contradicionary intentions, instead of fleeing from violence the person was armed to the teeth enough to cause a high rate of human casualties. As reported the jihadist came in as an Algerian refugee. On the picture the 'refugee' was seen in combination with two Kalashnikov assault rifles both comprising different AK features. This examples show the ease with which attacks can be prepared. Next to the Kalashnikov assault rifles also several F1 type fragmentation hand grenades were shown. Handgrenades give a dramatic defensive capability which makes it possible to extent the duration of gun attacks. Hand grenades are absolutely forbidden for civilians, the fact that these weapons are obtainable emphasized the black market potential of illegal weaponary. This is mainly explainable by the influx and travelling of illegal small arms with Europe. There are hardly any media reports about arms caches found in Europe, recently several media channels reported a weapon cache that was found in a refugee camp in Sweden.
Mar. 2016 (C) SAFOPS CONSULTANCY  

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Afghanistan: 28th of January 2016  

Islamic State increases its military power by intensive mental and weapon training of youngsters to jihadists  

Recent published photographs make clear that Islamic State organizes intensive training of youngsters to become jihadits. The pictures show a disciplined way of training among which the usage and deployment of Kalashnikov assault rifles. Islamic State is further improving its military positions in several troubled regions more and more. The combination of destabilized political climates in several Middle East countries and intensive availability of Kalashnikov assault rifles is a daily growing concern for Western societies, in particular these of the European Union. The importation of conflicts become more and more realistic. A consolidation of regional powers could make Islamic State a military power to take very seriously for its asymmetric military potential. There is no doubt Islamic State will sooner or later pop up in other Middle East countries. A further economic downturn is very likely to be the final accelerant ingredient even Saudi Arabia could be faced with this scenario.  
March. 2016 (C) SAFOPS CONSULTANCY 

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Europe: 20th of December 2015 

Flourishing illegal trade in Kalashnikovs in Europe endangers public security, easy shopping for terrorists 

The risk measures that were taken in order to do something about the illegal arms trade in Europe appear to be insufficient. Despite the measures taken it appears that the Kalashnikov has a more and more prominent role in crime and more terrorism. Even cautious extrapolations of the current increase of Kalashnikov deployment makes clear that Western societies, and these of Europe in particular, will face such a high rate of terrorist attacks that it will be a very challenging for governments authorities to safeguard public security. The situation in Europe regarding the smuggling of illegal weaponary should be taken more seriously and more important the problem should be seperated from a contra productive gun control.
Feb. 2016 (C) SAFOPS CONSULTANCY 

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ITALY: 17th of December 2015

Envelope with Kalashnikov bullets sent to Italian Minister of Justice

The envelope that was sent to the Italian Minister of Justice, containing Kalashnikov ammunition emphasizes the symbolic value of the Kalashnikov as part of the Islamic fight. Without any doubt the Kalashnikov assault rifle is becoming more and more notorious referring to the growing number of terrorist attacks on European soil. When it comes to complentary goods like ammunition than it should be understood that the unofficial production of ammunition is another problem for the European public securtiy. Ideas that ammunition  the esthablishment of ammunition factories in Nothern Africa are a much bigger problem.
Feb. 2016 (C) SAFOPS CONSULTANCY   

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 FRANCE: 7th of December 2015

Kalashnikov assault rifles and ammunition found in mosques

Several media channels have reported that a collection of Kalashnikov assault rifles were found in a Paris mosque. The presence of such type of weapon indicate that it is more than logical new attacks are to be expected in Europe and more important all mentally nourished with fanaticism. The current situation (January 2016) in several European cities is that armed forces have stationed to protect citizen but the rethoric questions remains whether these measures are enough to guarantee public security nation wide. Governments will find it difficult to assure public security if only one would realize it's impossible intensify armed security nation wide.
Feb. 2016 (C) SAFOPS CONSULTANCY  

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UNITED KINGDOM: 17th of December 2015

Warning from Farage, be aware of the consequence of the current political descisions that are made 

Nigel Farage has warned for the free travel and consequently the easy obtainability of Kalashnikov assault rifles. According to Farage the problem will even be worsened with the conflict in Ukraine. It isn't difficult to guess what the consequences for public securtiy are. With growing easy obtainability of Kalashnikov assault rifles the threshold for replicating the type of terrorist attacks like these that have occurend in Paris is further lowered. Next to the Ukraine crisis several conflicts in the Middle East have promoted illegal arms trade. The combination of fundamentalism and the Kalashnikov
Feb. 2016 (C) SAFOPS CONSULTANCY   

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UNITED KINGDOM: 17th of December 2015 

Easy obtainability of Kalashnikov assault rifles, gun control is not the answer 

Strict gun control is often seen as the answer to gun violence. This is mixing up dimensions of two different subject matters. In Europe where legal gun possession is restricted by gun laws. According to several politicians licensing is a risk reducing measures. For that reason it is strange that when it comes to fighting terrorism fingers were pointing into the direction of legal gun owners referring to the ideas of a European commission. Understanding that criminals and terrorists in particular are doing business on the street where they can chose from a wide collection of illegally obtainable selective fire arms.
Feb. 2016 (C) SAFOPS CONSULTANCY 

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UNITED KINGDOM: 28th of November 2015 

Not difficult to get a Kalashnikov, and so not difficult to do bad things

When it comes to informing public on how terrorists get their hands on weapons of war a lot of missionary work has to be done in order to come to a realistic view on that. Too often a primitive relationship is suggested. For that reason primitive counter productive risk measures are proposed as well such as more gun control, nota bene a biased reply which is often being brought as the only answer but in fact nourished by strict gun control agendas. Mixing up of facts and fiction also means nourishing gun control advocacy while more and more it becomes clear that public security in Europe is faced with a tremendous challenge because of a growing fundamentalism.
Feb. 2016 (C) SAFOPS CONSULTANCY    

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UNITED KINGDOM: 17th of December 2015  

Smugling Kalashnikov assault rifles in Europe, how easy it is!   

The recent terrorist attacks in Europe cleary indicate that terrorists focus their activities more and more on an increasingly difficult detectable level. Using the widely easy obtainable Kalashnikov assault rifles means that preparations are much easier to make and target acquisition in Western societies becomes much easier. Western societies cannot be fully prepared for these kind of terrorist attacks. No matter how certain public securtiy measures have been taken terrorist simply select other that are less prepared for terrorist attacks. It may be expected that sooner or later smaller towns are in scope of terrorist. The world wide diffuscion of Kalashnikov assault rifles in combination with growing fundamentalism is a very dangerously growing threat for public security.
Feb. 2016 (C) SAFOPS CONSULTANCY 

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UNITED KINGDOM: 23rd of August 2015  

Terrorist attack aimed at traveling public could have had dramatic consequences

By selecting public transport the suspected terrorist could have caused a brutal decrease of the sense of security. Taking the risk scenario of a terrorist attack on traveling civilians as a starting points the consequeces had been dramatic. No matter what risk scenario is used for determining human losses each of these individual scenarios point out that human losses would have very high. The key problem for public with this kind of terrorist attacks is that it would been very difficult for public to escape from the terrorist attack when realizing the train was traveling at high speed. It emphasizes the very unique and lucky scenario where train travelers have acted bravely to get the attacker disarmed on the spot. 
Feb. 2016 (C) SAFOPS CONSULTANCY

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UNITED KINGDOM: 17th of February 2002 

AK47 Weapon Training in London mosque, very early signals that had to be taken very seriously

Already in 2002 there were clear indications that terrorist attacks with Kalashnikov assault rifle were to be expected when several media channels reported that AK47 training was held in a London. There are no clear numbers offered to the public with respect to incidents where Kalashnikov assault rifles were involved for example rolling up weapon caches or traning facilities. Without this transparancy it will be very difficult for public to ask their politicians to improve or adapt laws. Even stronger, the lack of this kind information could be the reason why legislation would evolve into a wrong direction with the opposite effects, that is a further inroad of Western public security. It is striking that the general media channels are paying very less attention to obtain this information.
Feb. 2016 (C) SAFOPS CONSULTANCY

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